Contador v. Evans in TT

[corey@sweetness.com]

In last year's Tour of Romandie final TT Evans rode 2.5 seconds per km
faster over 20.4 km, and in this year's Albi TT Evans rode 1.12
seconds per km faster over 54 km.

The 2005 Tour might be too far back to look for reference points, but
Evans gapped Contador by 0.8 seconds per km for a 19km prologue and
then by 4.5 seconds per km for the final 55km time trial. Presumably
Contador, out of GC contention at that point, wasn't going all out in
the final TT.

Without taking account of the stage profile (which is a crucial
element) if the gap is as in Romandie then Evans wins tomorrow by 2:15
and probably wins the Tour overall. If the gap is more like Albi then
Evans wins by about one minute and Contador probably wins the Tour.

Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?


- Corey

[Tuschinski]

On Jul 27, 7:42 pm, co...@sweetness.com wrote:
> In last year's Tour of Romandie final TT Evans rode 2.5 seconds per km
> faster over 20.4 km, and in this year's Albi TT Evans rode 1.12
> seconds per km faster over 54 km.
>
> The 2005 Tour might be too far back to look for reference points, but
> Evans gapped Contador by 0.8 seconds per km for a 19km prologue and
> then by 4.5 seconds per km for the final 55km time trial. Presumably
> Contador, out of GC contention at that point, wasn't going all out in
> the final TT.
>
> Without taking account of the stage profile (which is a crucial
> element) if the gap is as in Romandie then Evans wins tomorrow by 2:15
> and probably wins the Tour overall. If the gap is more like Albi then
> Evans wins by about one minute and Contador probably wins the Tour.
>
> Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?
>
> - Corey

Considering that Disco is very good in preparing riders (physically
and mentally) and have 7 TdF's under their belt the odds are stacked
against Evans.

But it's a toss-up, thats for sure.

[DirtRoadie]

On Jul 27, 11:42 am, co...@sweetness.com wrote:
> Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?

No, but here's some more data with recognizable names for comparison/
speculation
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/mar07/parisnice07/?id=results/parisnice070
See places 5, 6 ,17 (It did involve a climb)
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/mar07/parisnice07/graphics/profile0.gif

DR

[Stu Fleming]

corey@sweetness.com wrote:

> Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?

The 3 seconds that Evans took at the end of the Angouleme stage are very
important.

I don't think final stage will be a procession...

[JC]

<corey@sweetness.com> wrote in message
news:1185558158.875348.174140@57g2000hsv.googlegro ups.com...
> In last year's Tour of Romandie final TT Evans rode 2.5 seconds per km
> faster over 20.4 km, and in this year's Albi TT Evans rode 1.12
> seconds per km faster over 54 km.
>
> The 2005 Tour might be too far back to look for reference points, but
> Evans gapped Contador by 0.8 seconds per km for a 19km prologue and
> then by 4.5 seconds per km for the final 55km time trial. Presumably
> Contador, out of GC contention at that point, wasn't going all out in
> the final TT.
>
> Without taking account of the stage profile (which is a crucial
> element) if the gap is as in Romandie then Evans wins tomorrow by 2:15
> and probably wins the Tour overall. If the gap is more like Albi then
> Evans wins by about one minute and Contador probably wins the Tour.
>
> Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?

Another newbie Q

Does the 20 sec time bonus apply for TT as well?

If so, then Evans only needs to be in front of Contador by 1:31, providing
Evans wins the TT and Contador arrives lower than third.

Am i right, or did i balls it up?

>
>
> - Corey
>

[Dumbass]

On Jul 27, 1:42 pm, co...@sweetness.com wrote:
> In last year's Tour of Romandie final TT Evans rode 2.5 seconds per km
> faster over 20.4 km, and in this year's Albi TT Evans rode 1.12
> seconds per km faster over 54 km.
>
> The 2005 Tour might be too far back to look for reference points, but
> Evans gapped Contador by 0.8 seconds per km for a 19km prologue and
> then by 4.5 seconds per km for the final 55km time trial. Presumably
> Contador, out of GC contention at that point, wasn't going all out in
> the final TT.
>
> Without taking account of the stage profile (which is a crucial
> element) if the gap is as in Romandie then Evans wins tomorrow by 2:15
> and probably wins the Tour overall. If the gap is more like Albi then
> Evans wins by about one minute and Contador probably wins the Tour.
>
> Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?
>
> - Corey

Evans yellow jersey future is trading at 28% on tradesports. There is
no future trading for Contador because he was such an underdog
earlier.

That probably makes Evans an underdog, speculating that Contador would
trade higher. I suppose Evans is a bit discounted because of the ever
present possibility of dope-base elimination. The Field (including
Contador) is trading at 66%. Levi is trading at 6%.

[Howard Kveck]

In article <1185558158.875348.174140@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.c om>,
corey@sweetness.com wrote:

> In last year's Tour of Romandie final TT Evans rode 2.5 seconds per km
> faster over 20.4 km, and in this year's Albi TT Evans rode 1.12
> seconds per km faster over 54 km.
>
> The 2005 Tour might be too far back to look for reference points, but
> Evans gapped Contador by 0.8 seconds per km for a 19km prologue and
> then by 4.5 seconds per km for the final 55km time trial. Presumably
> Contador, out of GC contention at that point, wasn't going all out in
> the final TT.
>
> Without taking account of the stage profile (which is a crucial
> element) if the gap is as in Romandie then Evans wins tomorrow by 2:15
> and probably wins the Tour overall. If the gap is more like Albi then
> Evans wins by about one minute and Contador probably wins the Tour.
>
> Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?

It's probably worth taking into consideration that in '05 Evans was really going
for it in the race while I don't think Contador was pushing all out. It was his first
Tour and he was there to support Heras and Beloki (he did end up in the white jersey,
though). So that might account for some of the differences in the ITT times of Evans
and Contador.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

[Tom Kunich]

"Tuschinski" <Tuschinski@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1185559650.301233.5470@w3g2000hsg.googlegroup s.com...
>
> Considering that Disco is very good in preparing riders (physically
> and mentally) and have 7 TdF's under their belt the odds are stacked
> against Evans.
>
> But it's a toss-up, thats for sure.

I'm hoping that after that dumbass move of Contador's in letting a gap open
between him and Evans that Cadel wins by 3 seconds tomorrow.

[G.T.]

Tom Kunich wrote:
> "Tuschinski" <Tuschinski@gmail.com> wrote in message
> news:1185559650.301233.5470@w3g2000hsg.googlegroup s.com...
>> Considering that Disco is very good in preparing riders (physically
>> and mentally) and have 7 TdF's under their belt the odds are stacked
>> against Evans.
>>
>> But it's a toss-up, thats for sure.
>
> I'm hoping that after that dumbass move of Contador's in letting a gap open
> between him and Evans that Cadel wins by 3 seconds tomorrow.
>

Damn, I have to agree with TK there.

Greg

--
The ticketbastard Tax Tracker:
http://www.ticketmastersucks.org/tracker.html

Dethink to survive - Mclusky

[Scott]

On Jul 27, 3:24 pm, Stu Fleming <stew...@wic.co.nz> wrote:
> co...@sweetness.com wrote:
> > Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?
>
> The 3 seconds that Evans took at the end of the Angouleme stage are very
> important.
>
> I don't think final stage will be a procession...

I'm not sure how close it would have to be at the end of the TT for
someone to think it would even be possible to make up the time on
Sunday, before they'd even bother to try. I don't see anyone trying
to take back 2 or 3 minutes on Sunday. Not really any way to do it
unless they could blow apart the field in a crosswind, like Astana did
last week. Sunday will be much like yesterday or today: the entire
teams for the top two (three, actually) riders ALL massed at the front
protecting their leaders.

If it's only seconds, I suppose we could see the top three fighting
for the time bonuses at the final sprint, but I don't really expect
that would happen. It would require every legitimate sprinter to
voluntarily give up any chance for their own stage win, which won't
happen.

So, how, exactly, would someone overtake the yellow jersey on Sunday?

[Carl Sundquist]

"JC" <nobody@home.com> wrote in message
news:wEuqi.147107$LL7.112915@fe08.news.easynews.co m...
>
> Does the 20 sec time bonus apply for TT as well?

Another newbie Q

No.

[Morten Reippuert Knudsen]

JC <nobody@home.com> wrote:

> <corey@sweetness.com> wrote in message
> news:1185558158.875348.174140@57g2000hsv.googlegro ups.com...
> > In last year's Tour of Romandie final TT Evans rode 2.5 seconds per km
> > faster over 20.4 km, and in this year's Albi TT Evans rode 1.12
> > seconds per km faster over 54 km.
> >
> > The 2005 Tour might be too far back to look for reference points, but
> > Evans gapped Contador by 0.8 seconds per km for a 19km prologue and
> > then by 4.5 seconds per km for the final 55km time trial. Presumably
> > Contador, out of GC contention at that point, wasn't going all out in
> > the final TT.
> >
> > Without taking account of the stage profile (which is a crucial
> > element) if the gap is as in Romandie then Evans wins tomorrow by 2:15
> > and probably wins the Tour overall. If the gap is more like Albi then
> > Evans wins by about one minute and Contador probably wins the Tour.
> >
> > Anyone else have hunches or insight on tomorrow's outcome?

> Another newbie Q

> Does the 20 sec time bonus apply for TT as well?

> If so, then Evans only needs to be in front of Contador by 1:31, providing
> Evans wins the TT and Contador arrives lower than third.

> Am i right, or did i balls it up?

No bonus on TT, no recalculation of points so bouns if a rider leaves
the race in any way.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

[JC]

>> Another newbie Q
>
>> Does the 20 sec time bonus apply for TT as well?
>
>> If so, then Evans only needs to be in front of Contador by 1:31,
>> providing
>> Evans wins the TT and Contador arrives lower than third.
>
>> Am i right, or did i balls it up?
>
> No bonus on TT, no recalculation of points so bouns if a rider leaves
> the race in any way.

Ok thanks,
In this case then, with Contador riding last and his team constantly keeping
him up to date(though his ear piece) with Evan's progress, i think Contador
will do just enough to stay in front.



>
> --
> Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>
>
> Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.