TdF: Decided in Paris?

[Mike Schway]

OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what I've
gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as part of the
Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the possible exception of
those sprinters looking to win the Green J.

However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3 within 31
seconds. This means the final stage might have some interesting
implications.

I've got a couple of questions:

1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this stage?

2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING rather than
just being part of a parade through Paris?

3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the YJ in
a break?

4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points ahead
of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the finish. Would
those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile for Boonen or Hunter
to contest them?

Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with all
those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
non-traditional finale as well.

--Mike

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Schway | [Picture your favorite quote here]
mschway@nas.com |
--------------------------------------------------------------------

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>,
Mike Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:

> OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what I've
> gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as part of the
> Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the possible exception of
> those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
>
> However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3 within 31
> seconds. This means the final stage might have some interesting
> implications.
>
> I've got a couple of questions:
>
> 1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this stage?

Yes

> 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING rather than
> just being part of a parade through Paris?

Maybe

> 3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the YJ in
> a break?

It would be hard

> 4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points ahead
> of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the finish. Would
> those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile for Boonen or Hunter
> to contest them?

Yes. No. Well, Hunter might go for them, but Boonen only cares if Hunter
does, and neither is likely to care much if someone else cares at all.

> Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with all
> those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
> non-traditional finale as well.

My thoughts as well, but the driver here is whether Evans (or,
treacherously, Leipheimer) thinks he can get away.

The problem is that tradition aside, Evans will be a hugely marked man
(basically, Disco will be surrounding Contador, and riding as close to
Evans as they can, all day). I don't think his team is as strong as
Disco when it comes to forming or suppressing breaks, and I don't think
there's enough hills or wind on the way in to Paris to make a break
stick.

--
Ryan Cousineau rcousine@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Mike Schway]

In article <rcousine-814803.12200828072007@news.telus.net>,
Ryan Cousineau <rcousine@sfu.ca> wrote:

> In article <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>,
> Mike Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:
>
> > OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what I've
> > gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as part of the
> > Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the possible exception of
> > those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
> >
> > However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3 within 31
> > seconds. This means the final stage might have some interesting
> > implications.
> >
> > I've got a couple of questions:
> >
> > 1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this stage?
>
> Yes
>
> > 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING rather than
> > just being part of a parade through Paris?
>
> Maybe
>
> > 3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the YJ in
> > a break?
>
> It would be hard
>
> > 4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points ahead
> > of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the finish. Would
> > those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile for Boonen or Hunter
> > to contest them?
>
> Yes. No. Well, Hunter might go for them, but Boonen only cares if Hunter
> does, and neither is likely to care much if someone else cares at all.
>
> > Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with all
> > those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
> > non-traditional finale as well.
>
> My thoughts as well, but the driver here is whether Evans (or,
> treacherously, Leipheimer) thinks he can get away.
>
> The problem is that tradition aside, Evans will be a hugely marked man
> (basically, Disco will be surrounding Contador, and riding as close to
> Evans as they can, all day). I don't think his team is as strong as
> Disco when it comes to forming or suppressing breaks, and I don't think
> there's enough hills or wind on the way in to Paris to make a break
> stick.

It just occurred to me: Do we have the possibility of two teammates
actually competing AGAINST each other for the ending sprint? LL was
originally slated to be the team leader. Who's going to work for whom?

If LL tries to steal it from Contador (it'll only take a 2 second last
minute break plus the stage win), would that get him fired from next
year's Team Disco? hmmmm.

--Mike

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Schway | [Picture your favorite quote here]
mschway@nas.com |
--------------------------------------------------------------------

[Roger Zoul]

Mike Schway wrote:
:: In article <rcousine-814803.12200828072007@news.telus.net>,
:: Ryan Cousineau <rcousine@sfu.ca> wrote:
::
::: In article <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>,
::: Mike Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:
:::
:::: OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what I've
:::: gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as part of
:::: the Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the possible
:::: exception of those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
::::
:::: However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3
:::: within 31 seconds. This means the final stage might have some
:::: interesting implications.
::::
:::: I've got a couple of questions:
::::
:::: 1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this
:::: stage?
:::
::: Yes
:::
:::: 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING rather
:::: than just being part of a parade through Paris?
:::
::: Maybe
:::
:::: 3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the
:::: YJ in a break?
:::
::: It would be hard
:::
:::: 4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points
:::: ahead of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the
:::: finish. Would those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile
:::: for Boonen or Hunter to contest them?
:::
::: Yes. No. Well, Hunter might go for them, but Boonen only cares if
::: Hunter does, and neither is likely to care much if someone else
::: cares at all.
:::
:::: Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with
:::: all those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
:::: non-traditional finale as well.
:::
::: My thoughts as well, but the driver here is whether Evans (or,
::: treacherously, Leipheimer) thinks he can get away.
:::
::: The problem is that tradition aside, Evans will be a hugely marked
::: man (basically, Disco will be surrounding Contador, and riding as
::: close to Evans as they can, all day). I don't think his team is as
::: strong as Disco when it comes to forming or suppressing breaks, and
::: I don't think there's enough hills or wind on the way in to Paris
::: to make a break stick.
::
:: It just occurred to me: Do we have the possibility of two teammates
:: actually competing AGAINST each other for the ending sprint? LL was
:: originally slated to be the team leader. Who's going to work for
:: whom?
::
:: If LL tries to steal it from Contador (it'll only take a 2 second
:: last minute break plus the stage win), would that get him fired from
:: next year's Team Disco? hmmmm.
::

LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't think he
would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent Evans from
getting it.

[VBadJuJu]

Mike Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:

>In article <rcousine-814803.12200828072007@news.telus.net>,
> Ryan Cousineau <rcousine@sfu.ca> wrote:
>
>> In article <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>,
>> Mike Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:
>>
>> > OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what I've
>> > gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as part of the
>> > Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the possible exception of
>> > those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
>> >
>> > However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3 within 31
>> > seconds. This means the final stage might have some interesting
>> > implications.
>> >
>> > I've got a couple of questions:
>> >
>> > 1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this stage?
>>
>> Yes
>>
>> > 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING rather than
>> > just being part of a parade through Paris?
>>
>> Maybe
>>
>> > 3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the YJ in
>> > a break?
>>
>> It would be hard
>>
>> > 4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points ahead
>> > of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the finish. Would
>> > those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile for Boonen or Hunter
>> > to contest them?
>>
>> Yes. No. Well, Hunter might go for them, but Boonen only cares if Hunter
>> does, and neither is likely to care much if someone else cares at all.
>>
>> > Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with all
>> > those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
>> > non-traditional finale as well.
>>
>> My thoughts as well, but the driver here is whether Evans (or,
>> treacherously, Leipheimer) thinks he can get away.
>>
>> The problem is that tradition aside, Evans will be a hugely marked man
>> (basically, Disco will be surrounding Contador, and riding as close to
>> Evans as they can, all day). I don't think his team is as strong as
>> Disco when it comes to forming or suppressing breaks, and I don't think
>> there's enough hills or wind on the way in to Paris to make a break
>> stick.
>
>It just occurred to me: Do we have the possibility of two teammates
>actually competing AGAINST each other for the ending sprint? LL was
>originally slated to be the team leader. Who's going to work for whom?

Not likely. If LL were to go for it and win, it would pretty much
sour the entire team against him as well as sully his reputation with
other riders and teams.

If Evans goes for it, he stands to convert his 2nd into a 3rd because
he's be up against all of Disco. Perhaps, LL secretly wants Cadel to
go for it as it is his best chance and most reputable way to move up.

>
>If LL tries to steal it from Contador (it'll only take a 2 second last
>minute break plus the stage win), would that get him fired from next
>year's Team Disco? hmmmm.
>
LL would have to beat the sprinters who like to take the stage win and
I dont think he can do that.

I think this is the last year of Disco's sponsorship, which means any
such antics would have to be acceptable to any new sponsor he wants to
get a job with.

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article <13anbql40dqmk79@news.supernews.com>,
"Roger Zoul" <rogerzoul2@hotmail.com> wrote:

> Mike Schway wrote:
> :: In article <rcousine-814803.12200828072007@news.telus.net>,
> :: Ryan Cousineau <rcousine@sfu.ca> wrote:
> ::
> ::: In article <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>,
> ::: Mike Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:
> :::
> :::: OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what I've
> :::: gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as part of
> :::: the Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the possible
> :::: exception of those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
> ::::
> :::: However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3
> :::: within 31 seconds. This means the final stage might have some
> :::: interesting implications.
> ::::
> :::: I've got a couple of questions:
> ::::
> :::: 1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this
> :::: stage?
> :::
> ::: Yes
> :::
> :::: 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING rather
> :::: than just being part of a parade through Paris?
> :::
> ::: Maybe
> :::
> :::: 3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the
> :::: YJ in a break?
> :::
> ::: It would be hard
> :::
> :::: 4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points
> :::: ahead of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the
> :::: finish. Would those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile
> :::: for Boonen or Hunter to contest them?
> :::
> ::: Yes. No. Well, Hunter might go for them, but Boonen only cares if
> ::: Hunter does, and neither is likely to care much if someone else
> ::: cares at all.
> :::
> :::: Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with
> :::: all those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
> :::: non-traditional finale as well.
> :::
> ::: My thoughts as well, but the driver here is whether Evans (or,
> ::: treacherously, Leipheimer) thinks he can get away.
> :::
> ::: The problem is that tradition aside, Evans will be a hugely marked
> ::: man (basically, Disco will be surrounding Contador, and riding as
> ::: close to Evans as they can, all day). I don't think his team is as
> ::: strong as Disco when it comes to forming or suppressing breaks, and
> ::: I don't think there's enough hills or wind on the way in to Paris
> ::: to make a break stick.
> ::
> :: It just occurred to me: Do we have the possibility of two teammates
> :: actually competing AGAINST each other for the ending sprint? LL was
> :: originally slated to be the team leader. Who's going to work for
> :: whom?
> ::
> :: If LL tries to steal it from Contador (it'll only take a 2 second
> :: last minute break plus the stage win), would that get him fired from
> :: next year's Team Disco? hmmmm.
> ::
>
> LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't think he
> would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent Evans from
> getting it.

Leipheimer is currently trying to convince Evans to try for it.

--
Ryan Cousineau rcousine@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Mike Kruger]

Roger Zoul wrote:
>
> LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't
> think he would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent
> Evans from getting it.

Agree. He's had a successful tour. The podium position's enough of a gift as
it is.

But consider this:
He's only 8 seconds behind Evans. There are two intermediate sprints. He
might try to sneak some seconds this way with the time bonuses, but Evans is
likely to be prepared for this. It might add some spice to tomorrow.

[Bill Sornson]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> In article <13anbql40dqmk79@news.supernews.com>,
> "Roger Zoul" <rogerzoul2@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Mike Schway wrote:
>>>> In article <rcousine-814803.12200828072007@news.telus.net>,
>>>> Ryan Cousineau <rcousine@sfu.ca> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> In article
>>>>> <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>, Mike
>>>>> Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what
>>>>>> I've gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as
>>>>>> part of the Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the
>>>>>> possible exception of those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3
>>>>>> within 31 seconds. This means the final stage might have some
>>>>>> interesting implications.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I've got a couple of questions:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 1) Is there the customary 30 second time bonus for winning this
>>>>>> stage?
>>>>>
>>>>> Yes
>>>>>
>>>>>> 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING
>>>>>> rather than just being part of a parade through Paris?
>>>>>
>>>>> Maybe
>>>>>
>>>>>> 3) Even if there is no time bonus, might the top 3 try to win the
>>>>>> YJ in a break?
>>>>>
>>>>> It would be hard
>>>>>
>>>>>> 4) Will Boonen let these 3 guys win the sprints? He's 24 points
>>>>>> ahead of Hunter and there are two intermediate sprints plus the
>>>>>> finish. Would those sprints yield enough points to be worthwhile
>>>>>> for Boonen or Hunter to contest them?
>>>>>
>>>>> Yes. No. Well, Hunter might go for them, but Boonen only cares if
>>>>> Hunter does, and neither is likely to care much if someone else
>>>>> cares at all.
>>>>>
>>>>>> Obviously tradition has been thrown out the window this year with
>>>>>> all those mass withdrawals, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see
>>>>>> a non-traditional finale as well.
>>>>>
>>>>> My thoughts as well, but the driver here is whether Evans (or,
>>>>> treacherously, Leipheimer) thinks he can get away.
>>>>>
>>>>> The problem is that tradition aside, Evans will be a hugely marked
>>>>> man (basically, Disco will be surrounding Contador, and riding as
>>>>> close to Evans as they can, all day). I don't think his team is as
>>>>> strong as Disco when it comes to forming or suppressing breaks,
>>>>> and I don't think there's enough hills or wind on the way in to
>>>>> Paris to make a break stick.
>>>>
>>>> It just occurred to me: Do we have the possibility of two
>>>> teammates actually competing AGAINST each other for the ending
>>>> sprint? LL was originally slated to be the team leader. Who's
>>>> going to work for whom?
>>>>
>>>> If LL tries to steal it from Contador (it'll only take a 2 second
>>>> last minute break plus the stage win), would that get him fired
>>>> from next year's Team Disco? hmmmm.
>>>>
>>
>> LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't
>> think he would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent
>> Evans from getting it.
>
> Leipheimer is currently trying to convince Evans to try for it.

Source? He said he was content with third place after today's TT win, and
that Evans didn't have to worry about him trying to pull a "Vinokourov"
tomorrow.

Isn't there a tradition of letting things stand on the final day?

[Bill Sornson]

Mike Kruger wrote:
> Roger Zoul wrote:
>>
>> LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't
>> think he would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent
>> Evans from getting it.
>
> Agree. He's had a successful tour. The podium position's enough of a
> gift as it is.
>
> But consider this:
> He's only 8 seconds behind Evans. There are two intermediate sprints.
> He might try to sneak some seconds this way with the time bonuses,
> but Evans is likely to be prepared for this. It might add some spice
> to tomorrow.

He (LL) said he wasn't going to try for that. Didn't anyone see today's
coverage?

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article <46abdd6b$0$10330$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
"Bill Sornson" <askme@ask.me> wrote:

> Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> > In article <13anbql40dqmk79@news.supernews.com>,
> > "Roger Zoul" <rogerzoul2@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Mike Schway wrote:
> >>>> In article <rcousine-814803.12200828072007@news.telus.net>,
> >>>> Ryan Cousineau <rcousine@sfu.ca> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>> In article
> >>>>> <mschway-81DDFE.11563628072007@comcast.dca.giganews.com>, Mike
> >>>>> Schway <mschway@nas.com> wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>> OK, I'm a relative newbie to following the TdF, but from what
> >>>>>> I've gathered, it *nearly* always ends with the GC leaders as
> >>>>>> part of the Peleton crossing the line at equal times, with the
> >>>>>> possible exception of those sprinters looking to win the Green J.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> However: this year, as bizarre as it's been, sees the top 3
> >>>>>> within 31 seconds. This means the final stage might have some
> >>>>>> interesting implications.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> I've got a couple of questions:

> >>>>>> 2) If so, does this mean the top 3 will be actually RACING
> >>>>>> rather than just being part of a parade through Paris?
> >>>>>

> >> LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't
> >> think he would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent
> >> Evans from getting it.
> >
> > Leipheimer is currently trying to convince Evans to try for it.
>
> Source? He said he was content with third place after today's TT win, and
> that Evans didn't have to worry about him trying to pull a "Vinokourov"
> tomorrow.

I said it mostly in jest, but the point is that if Evans were to go for
it, perhaps in a breakaway, then Leipheimer would have a legitimate
excuse to join the break as a counter-move. Then they could work
together, fight for the sprint bonuses, and one or the other might win
the Tour if they stayed away.

In fact, this was an entirely fanciful scenario (as the final stage
seems to be proving).

> Isn't there a tradition of letting things stand on the final day?

It's not so much a tradition of letting things stand as a tradition that
the GC is settled before this day. There is rarely any GC stuff to be
settled, because the final stage is short, flat, and not especially
windy, so you can't make any time.

There have been exceptions when racers did have the chance to make
improvements, but they don't amount to much. I think Benjo Maso pointed
out recently that Merckx attempted to attack in the last stage of the
1975 tour, but was unable to make any time.

--
Ryan Cousineau rcousine@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

[Kenny]

On Jul 29, 8:20 am, "Bill Sornson" <as...@ask.me> wrote:
> Mike Kruger wrote:
> > Roger Zoul wrote:
>
> >> LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't
> >> think he would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to prevent
> >> Evans from getting it.
>
> > Agree. He's had a successful tour. The podium position's enough of a
> > gift as it is.
>
> > But consider this:
> > He's only 8 seconds behind Evans. There are two intermediate sprints.
> > He might try to sneak some seconds this way with the time bonuses,
> > but Evans is likely to be prepared for this. It might add some spice
> > to tomorrow.
>
> He (LL) said he wasn't going to try for that. Didn't anyone see today's
> coverage?

Maybe LL's playing possum.

[Roger Zoul]

Kenny wrote:
:: On Jul 29, 8:20 am, "Bill Sornson" <as...@ask.me> wrote:
::: Mike Kruger wrote:
:::: Roger Zoul wrote:
:::
::::: LL wanted a podium position and a stage win. He has those. I don't
::::: think he would steal his teammate's win unless he had to to
::::: prevent Evans from getting it.
:::
:::: Agree. He's had a successful tour. The podium position's enough of
:::: a gift as it is.
:::
:::: But consider this:
:::: He's only 8 seconds behind Evans. There are two intermediate
:::: sprints. He might try to sneak some seconds this way with the time
:::: bonuses, but Evans is likely to be prepared for this. It might
:::: add some spice to tomorrow.
:::
::: He (LL) said he wasn't going to try for that. Didn't anyone see
::: today's coverage?
::
:: Maybe LL's playing possum.

I don't think he's that type of guy. He comes across as a very straight
shooter to me.