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View Full Version : Re: OT: Here're the savings from Arctic drilling — 75 cents a barrel


r15757@aol.com
12-31-1969, 08:00 PM
On May 23, 12:07 pm, "Sandy" <leur...@free.fr> wrote:
> Dans le message denews:49be4590-8100-42fc-9950-6a11fa071bcb@m3g2000hsc.googlegroups.com,
> r15...@aol.com <r15...@aol.com> a réfléchi, et puis a déclaré :
>
>
>
> > On May 23, 10:23 am, Eric Vey <jun...@ericvey.com> wrote:
> >>http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/38223.html
>
> >> WASHINGTON — If Congress were to open up the Arctic National
> >> Wildlife Refuge to drilling, crude oil prices would probably drop by
> >> an average of only 75 cents a barrel, according to Department of
> >> Energy projections issued Thursday.
>
> >> The report, which was requested in December by Sen. Ted Stevens,
> >> R-Alaska, found that oil production in the refuge "is not projected
> >> to have a large impact on world oil prices."
>
> >> But the report also finds that opening ANWR could have other
> >> benefits, particularly in Alaska, where tapping the resources in the
> >> Arctic refuge could extend the lifespan of the trans-Alaska
> >> pipeline. It estimates that if Congress agreed to open ANWR this
> >> year, Alaskan oil could hit the market in about 10 years.
>
> >> [more]
>
> > that looks like bs to me. Drilling ANWR has virtually no chance of
> > causing the global price of oil to drop.
>
> Completetly correct. The speculation on pricing, as well as the cartel
> price and volume setttings, are the only things that really influence the
> rise in costs. Wellhead extraction costs since 2000 have only increased
> about 14%, transportation costs have remained almost level, and the price
> point is established at the delivery point (pipeline terminus or input
> flange on a tanker).

While US consumption is dropping, China's demand grew 12 % over last
year. Supply has gone essentially flat as oil producers struggle to
make up for ongoing declines in big fields. Prices will rise
exponentially until they cause enough demand destruction in wealthy
economies to balance supply and demand.

Robert

r15757@aol.com
12-31-1969, 08:00 PM
On May 23, 2:42 pm, "Sandy" <leur...@free.fr> wrote:
> Dans le message denews:4a8c2fe8-d58b-467c-840a-4b729202e006@x35g2000hsb.googlegroups.com,
> r15...@aol.com <r15...@aol.com> a réfléchi, et puis a déclaré :
>
>
>
> > On May 23, 12:07 pm, "Sandy" <leur...@free.fr> wrote:
> >> Dans le message
> >> denews:49be4590-8100-42fc-9950-6a11fa071bcb@m3g2000hsc.googlegroups.com,
> >> r15...@aol.com <r15...@aol.com> a réfléchi, et puis a déclaré :
>
> >>> On May 23, 10:23 am, Eric Vey <jun...@ericvey.com> wrote:
> >>>>http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/38223.html
>
> >>>> WASHINGTON — If Congress were to open up the Arctic National
> >>>> Wildlife Refuge to drilling, crude oil prices would probably drop
> >>>> by an average of only 75 cents a barrel, according to Department of
> >>>> Energy projections issued Thursday.
>
> >>>> The report, which was requested in December by Sen. Ted Stevens,
> >>>> R-Alaska, found that oil production in the refuge "is not projected
> >>>> to have a large impact on world oil prices."
>
> >>>> But the report also finds that opening ANWR could have other
> >>>> benefits, particularly in Alaska, where tapping the resources in
> >>>> the Arctic refuge could extend the lifespan of the trans-Alaska
> >>>> pipeline. It estimates that if Congress agreed to open ANWR this
> >>>> year, Alaskan oil could hit the market in about 10 years.
>
> >>>> [more]
>
> >>> that looks like bs to me. Drilling ANWR has virtually no chance of
> >>> causing the global price of oil to drop.
>
> >> Completetly correct. The speculation on pricing, as well as the
> >> cartel
> >> price and volume setttings, are the only things that really
> >> influence the
> >> rise in costs. Wellhead extraction costs since 2000 have only
> >> increased
> >> about 14%, transportation costs have remained almost level, and the
> >> price
> >> point is established at the delivery point (pipeline terminus or
> >> input
> >> flange on a tanker).
>
> > While US consumption is dropping, China's demand grew 12 % over last
> > year. Supply has gone essentially flat as oil producers struggle to
> > make up for ongoing declines in big fields. Prices will rise
> > exponentially until they cause enough demand destruction in wealthy
> > economies to balance supply and demand.
>
> > Robert
>
> Somewhat true. But demand is not in constriction, nor will it be, nor has
> it ever been. I recall that in 1973, there was a gas station in Manhattan
> that (briefly) charged about $3 per gallon and had lines, so long as they
> had gas. So long as money is more elastic than supply, demand will grow.
> Note also, China has its CPEC pipeline in place, thus taking prices from the
> tap, not speculators.
>
> I would avoid the word "exponential" unless math has taken a logical
> holiday.

Oil will hit 400$/barrel and people will still be talking about
speculators and using their powers of hopefulness in attempts to wish
the price back down. The price is the price. It will come down when
people in wealthy countries stop paying it.

Robert